What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - October 24, 2022Last week’s economic reporting included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on national and regional  U.S. housing markets. The National Association of Realtors® reported on sales of previously-owned homes, and the Commerce Department released readings on building permits issued and housing starts. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: Home Builder Confidence in Housing Market Falls for 10th Consecutive Month

The National Association of Home Builders reported that home builder confidence in the U.S housing market fell for the 8th consecutive month in October; the organization described the situation as “unsustainable.” The NAHB Housing Market Index, which is based on index readings from 1 to 100, fell to an index reading of 38 in October as compared to the expected reading of 44 and September’s reading of 46. NAHB index readings below 50 indicate that most builders are less confident about housing market conditions than are positive about the U.S  single-family housing market.

NAHB’s regional U.S housing market readings were mixed with the Northeast region reporting a one-point increase in homebuilder confidence in housing market conditions from an index reading of  47 to 48. Home builder confidence in the Midwest fell to a reading of 38 in October from September’s index reading of 42. Homebuilder confidence in housing markets in the South fell by 11 points to an index reading of 41 in October. Homebuilder confidence in housing market conditions lagged in the West from September’s reading of 34 to October’s index reading of 25. Rising mortgage rates and high home prices combined to quash homebuilder enthusiasm.

Existing Home Sales Fall in September

The National Association of Realtors® reported slower sales of previously-owned homes in September as compared to August. 4.71 million sales were reported in September on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Previously-owned homes sold at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 4.78 million sales in August. 

The Commerce Department reported that 1.56 million building permits were issued on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis in September Analysts expected a reading of 1.54 million permits issued, which was unchanged from August’s reading. In related news, 1.44 million housing starts were reported on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis in September. Analysts expected a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 1.47 million housing starts based on August’s seasonally-adjusted annual reading of 1.57 million housing starts.

Mortgage Rates Rise, Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week, but they rose at a slower pace than in recent weeks. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.94 percent and were two basis points higher than in the previous week. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.23 percent and were 14 basis points higher. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell by 10 basis points to 5.71 percent. Discount points averaged 0.90 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 1.10 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.

Initial jobless claims fell last week with 214,000 new claims filed as compared to 226,000 first-time claims filed in the previous week. Analysts expected 230,000 new jobless claims to be filed. 1.39 million ongoing jobless claims were filed last week as compared to 1.36 million continuing claims filed in the previous week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on U.S home prices, new and pending home sales, and inflation. The University of Michigan will issue its monthly reading on consumer sentiment and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This WeekLast week’s economic reporting included readings on month-to-month and year-over-year inflation and the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee. The University of Michigan published its preliminary consumer sentiment reading and weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

September Inflation Readings Provide No Relief

Inflation rose by a month-to-month pace of  0.40 percent in September as costs for staples including rent, food, and medical care increased. The Fed raised its target interest rate by 0.75 percent. Year-over-year inflation rose by 7.20 percent; this was the highest growth reading since 1982. The Federal Reserve considered a year-over-year rate of two percent inflation to be normal before the pandemic. September grocery prices were 13 percent higher year-over-year and reached their highest growth pace since 1979. Rents rose by 0.80 percent in September and the increase concerned economists who predicted no immediate end to high inflation. Rising rents are particularly significant as rent represents the largest component of most tenants’ budgets.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, reached a 40-year high in September after increasing by 0.60 percent in August. Analysts expected a month-to-month increase of 0.40 percent based on August’s core inflation reading of 0.60 percent.

Year-over-year core inflation dipped to 8.20 percent in September. Analysts expected a reading of 8.10 percent; the year-over-year inflation reading for August 2022 was 8.30 percent. By comparison, the year-over-year core inflation readings for September 2021 were 6.60 percent with an expected reading of 6.50 percent and an August 2021 reading of 6.30 percent.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 26 basis points to 6.92 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.09 percent and were 19 basis points higher. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose by 45 basis points to 5.81 percent. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 1.10 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.80 percent.

Initial jobless claims rose to 228,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 219,000 initial claim filings. The University of Michigan released its October consumer sentiment index with an index reading of 59.8; analysts expected a reading of 59.0 and September’s index reading was 58.6. Readings over 50 indicate that most index participants surveyed had a positive outlook on current economic conditions.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on U.S. housing markets, building permits issued, and housing starts. Sales of previously-owned homes will be reported along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - October 10, 2022Last week’s economic reporting included readings on construction spending, public and private sector job growth, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Construction Spending Falls in August

The Commerce Department reported less construction spending in August as spending fell by -0.70 percent to $1.78 trillion as compared to July’s reading of $1.79 trillion. August construction spending was lower than the expected reading of -0.20 percent and July’s revised construction spending reading of -0.60 percent. Year-over-year construction spending rose by 8.50 percent.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower fixed mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped by four basis points to 6.66 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by six basis points to 5.90 percent and the average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose by six basis points to 5.36 percent.

Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 1.00 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

 Higher-than-expected jobless claims were reported last week with 219,000 initial claims filed. Analysts expected  203,000 new claims to be filed and the previous week’s reading was 190,000 first-time jobless claims filed. Continuing jobless claims were also higher with 1.36 million jobless claims filed as compared to 1.35 million ongoing claims filed during the previous week. Rising jobless claims suggest that layoffs are increasing.

The federal government also released month-to-month readings for public and private sector job growth and the national unemployment rate. Non-farm payrolls rose by 263,000 jobs in September, which fell short of the expected reading of 275,000 jobs added and the previous month’s reading of 315,000 jobs added. The national unemployment rate fell to 3.50 percent in September as compared to August’s reading of 3.70 percent and the expected reading of 3.70 percent.

ADP reported that 208,000 private-sector jobs were added in September as compared to August’s reading of 185,000 jobs added; Analysts expected 200,000 jobs added, which was revised from initial expectations of 132,000 jobs added. Nela Richardson, the chief economist at ADP, said that reopened schools and childcare providers supported parents’ ability to return to work after pandemic shutdowns.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee, readings on retail sales, and the University of Michigan’s initial monthly report on consumer sentiment. 

Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Price Growth Slows in JulyThe S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for July showed a sharp slowing in home price growth from June to July. National home price growth slowed from June’s reading of 18.7 percent year-over-year growth to 16.10 percent home price growth in July. This reading translated to an 0.20 percent loss in month-to-month home price growth.

The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 0.40 percent in July after increasing by 0.40 percent in June. This was the first time since March 2012 that the 20-City Home Price Index posted a decreasing pace of home price growth; all 20 cities posted slower year-over-year home price growth in July than in June.

Seven cities in the 20-City Index posted higher home price gains in July as compared to June. Demand for homes exceeds supply in many areas; limited availability of homes, rising mortgage rate, and high home prices have discouraged would-be home buyers. Analysts said that home prices fell due to rising mortgage rates impacting affordability. Craig J. Lazzara, managing director for S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that the slowing pace of home price growth in July was the “largest deceleration in the history of the Index.”

Cities that previously enjoyed rapidly rising home prices experienced a marked slowing in home price growth. Home price growth fell by 3.50 percent in San Francisco, California, and Seattle, Washington reported a 3.10 percent decline in home price growth. Home price growth in San Diego, California decreased by 2.50 percent in July. Cities posting gains in home prices included Miami, Florida with month-to-month home price growth of 1.30 percent; Home prices in Cleveland, Ohio rose by one percent, and Home prices in Chicago, Illinois rose by 0.70 percent.

FHFA Reports Home Price Growth in All Regions

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees government-sponsored mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported that year-over-year home prices rose for all nine census divisions and ranged from 10 percent growth in the Pacific region to 18.90 percent growth in the South Atlantic region. FHFA data is based on home sales connected with purchase money mortgages owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - September 26, 2022Last week’s economic reporting included readings on housing markets, building permits issued, housing starts, and sales of previously-owned homes. The Federal Reserve released its scheduled monetary policy statement and gave a  press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

NAHB: Home Builder Confidence In Housing Markets Lags for 9th Consecutive Month

The National Association of Home Builders reported lower builder confidence in housing markets in September; this was the ninth straight month that builder confidence fell. Readings of 50 and above indicate that most home builders surveyed reported positive views of the U.S. housing market.  Excluding readings during the pandemic, September’s reading was the lowest measure of builder confidence since May of 2014.

Component readings for the monthly housing market confidence reading were also lower in September. Builder confidence in housing market conditions over the next six months fell by one point and confidence in prospective buyer traffic in housing developments was also one point lower.

All four NAHB regions reported lower builder confidence readings in September than in August. The western region reported a ten-point drop in builder confidence and the southern region saw builder confidence in housing markets drop by seven points. The midwestern and northeastern regions each reported a drop of five points in builder confidence in September. Rising mortgage rates and home prices contributed to the dip in homebuilder confidence.

Federal Reserve Raises Target Rate Range and Mortgage Rates Follow

The Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate range again in an attempt to slow rapid inflation. The target interest rate range was raised by 0.75 percent to a range of 3.00 to 3.25 percent. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining inflation at or near two percent and achieving maximum employment.

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.29 percent and were 27 basis points higher than in the previous week. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 23 basis points on average to 5.4 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged four basis points higher at 4.97 percent. Discount points averaged 0.90 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 1 percentage point for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.

Initial jobless claims rose to 213,000 new claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 208,000 claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings from S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices along with reports on pending home sales and inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - September 19, 2022Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Consumer Inflation Rate Falls as Gas Prices Decrease

Lower gas prices was welcomed news to consumers last week, but analysts said that high inflation would continue to impact consumer goods including groceries. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose by 0.60 percent, which was twice the expected month-to-month pace of  0.30 percent. Rapidly rising inflation could cause the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve to raise its target interest rate range again in a further attempt to slow runaway inflation.

While lower gas prices provided good news for consumers, rising costs for food, clothing, and household goods added to financial pressures for many families. The Fed indicated that it would increase its target interest rate range as needed to ease rapidly rising prices.

The consumer price index rose by 8.30 percent year-over-year, which exceeded the expected reading of 8.00 percent, but fell short of July’s year-over-year reading of 8.50 percent growth. The year-over-year reading for core consumer prices showed 6.30 percent growth which exceeded expectations of 6.00 percent growth and July’s reading of 5.90 percent growth.

In related news, retail sales rose by 0.30 percent in August and exceeded expectations of 0.10 percent month-to-month growth but fell short of July’s reading of 0.40 percent growth in retail sales. August’s retail sales excluding autos were -0.30 percent lower than in July. Analysts expected 0.10 percent growth in sales based on a flat reading of 0.00 percent growth n July. Consumers assumed a wait-and-see position about spending and chose to hold on to their cash.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates as the average fixed rate for 30-year mortgages exceeded six percent for the first time since 2008. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 13 basis points higher than in the previous week at 6.02 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.21 percent and five basis points higher. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 29 basis points higher at 4.93 percent. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and0.90 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.20 percent.

Fewer new jobless claims were filed last week with 213,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 218,000 initial jobless claims filed. Analysts expected 225,000 new jobless claims to be filed. The University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment rose to an index reading of 59.5 in September as compared to the expected reading of 60.0 and August’s reading of 58.2. Consumer sentiment readings over 50 indicate that most consumers feel positive about current economic conditions.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on the U.S. housing market, sales of previously-owned homes, data on housing starts, and building permits. issued Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - September 12, 2022Last week’s economic reporting was minimal due to the Labor Day Holiday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Fed Chair: Rates Expected to Remain Higher

Chair Powell said that interest rates will remain high for a longer than expected time as “history cautions against prematurely loosening [monetary] policy.” The Federal Reserve has a legislative mandate to maintain its target interest rate range at or near 2 percent, During a discussion at the Cato Institute, Chair Powell said that the longer inflation remains above the target rate range the more likely the public will view high inflation as normal.

Chair Powell addressed concerns about political influence on Fed policy. “ I can assure you that we never take into consideration external political considerations.” While President Biden supports the Fed’s policies,  Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren expressed concern that too many rate hikes could raise unemployment. Chairman Powell would not indicate how much the Fed may raise rates at its next monetary policy meeting on September 21 but analysts said the rate hike would likely be 0.75 percent or 0.50 percent at the least.

Mortgage Rates Rise, Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 23 basis points to 5.89 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.16 percent and were 18 basis points higher than in the previous week. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 4.64 percent and were 13 basis points higher on average. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.80 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.

New jobless claims fell to 222,000 initial claims filed last week as compared to the previous week’s reading of 228,000 new jobless claims filed.  1.45 million continuing jobless claims were filed last week as compared to the previous week’s 1.44 million ongoing claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on month-to-month and annual inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - September 6, 2022Last week’s economic reporting included readings on home price growth, federal data on public and private sector job growth, the national unemployment rate, and data on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

S&P Case Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in June

The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reported slower home price growth in June as home price growth slowed to a year-over-year pace of 18.0 percent as compared to May’s reading of 19.9 percent. The 20-City Home Price Index posted 18.6  percent growth in June as compared to May’s reading of 20.50 percent year-over-year growth in May.

The top three cities in June’s 20-City Home Price Index were Tampa, Florida, which posted the fastest year-over-year home price growth rate for the fourth consecutive month with a reading of 35.00 percent,  and Miami. Florida with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 33.00 percent. Dallas, Texas completed the top three cities with year-over-year home price growth of 28.20 percent.

While all 20 cities reported double-digit percentages for year-over-year home price growth, 19 of 20 cities reported slower rates of home price appreciation in June. Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director of S&P Dow Jones Indices, explained the difference between the deceleration of home price growth and home price decline. A deceleration in home price growth indicates that while home prices continue to increase, they’re doing so at a slower pace. A decline in home prices means that home prices are falling.

Analysts expect rising mortgage rates to negatively impact home sales as affordability issues increase. As demand for homes falls, home prices may also fall as the housing market cools.

Mortgage Rates Rise, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 11 basis points to 5.66 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.98 percent and 13 basis points higher. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 4.51 percent and 15 basis points higher than in the previous week.

Initial jobless claims fell last week with 232,000 initial claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 237,000 first-time claims filed. Analysts expected 245,000 new jobless claim filings last week. Job growth reports from ADP and the government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed sharp drops in job growth; ADP, which reports on private-sector payrolls, reported 132,000 jobs added in August as compared to July’s reading of 268,000 private-sector jobs added in July. The Non-Farm Payrolls report

The national unemployment report rose to 3.70 percent in August from July’s reading of 3.50 percent. Analysts expected a reading of 3.50 percent unemployment for August.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting is spare due to the Labor Day Holiday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will be released.

 

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - August 29, 2022

Last week’s economic news included readings on pending home sales, new home sales, and readings on monthly and yearly inflation rates. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published along with the University of Michigan’s final monthly and year-over-year readings on consumer sentiment.

Commerce Department Reports Fewer New Homes Sold in July

Sales of new homes fell by 12.60 percent month-to-month and were 29.6 percent lower year-over-year in July. The Commerce Department reported a year-over-year sales pace of 511,000 new homes sold in July as compared with June’s revised pace of 585,000 new homes sold. June’s reading was revised from its original year-over-year pace of 590,000 new home sales and was the lowest pace of home sales reported since January 2016.

Fears of rapidly rising inflation and mortgage rates impacted would-be homebuyers as construction costs and labor shortages contributed to rising home prices. Pending home sales decreased by one percent in July as compared to June’s reading of -8.9 percent fewer pending sales reported in June.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average rates for fixed-rate mortgages as the average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell. Rates for 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 5.53 percent and 42 basis points higher. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.85 percent and were 0.30 basis points higher. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was three basis points lower at 4.36 percent; discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell to 243,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 245,000 initial claims filed.

Inflation readings for July showed the first decrease since April 2020 as the month-to-month reading decreased by 0.10 percent as compared to June’s month-to-month reading of a one-percent increase in inflation. The core personal consumption rate, which does not include food or fuel costs, rose by 0.10 percent as compared to the expected reading of 0.20 percent and June’s reading of 0.60 percent inflation.

Inflation rose by 6.30 percent year-over-year in July as compared to June’s year-over-year reading of 6.80 percent. Core inflation rose by 4.60 percent year-over-year in July as compared to June’s reading of 4.80 percent. Decreasing inflationary growth suggests that relief may be on the way for consumers.

What’s Next

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on home prices, construction spending,  public and private-sector job growth, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

 

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - August 29, 2022

Last week’s economic news included readings on pending home sales, new home sales, and readings on monthly and yearly inflation rates. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published along with the University of Michigan’s final monthly and year-over-year readings on consumer sentiment.

Commerce Department Reports Fewer New Homes Sold in July

Sales of new homes fell by 12.60 percent month-to-month and were 29.6 percent lower year-over-year in July. The Commerce Department reported a year-over-year sales pace of 511,000 new homes sold in July as compared with June’s revised pace of 585,000 new homes sold. June’s reading was revised from its original year-over-year pace of 590,000 new home sales and was the lowest pace of home sales reported since January 2016.

Fears of rapidly rising inflation and mortgage rates impacted would-be homebuyers as construction costs and labor shortages contributed to rising home prices. Pending home sales decreased by one percent in July as compared to June’s reading of -8.9 percent fewer pending sales reported in June.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average rates for fixed-rate mortgages as the average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell. Rates for 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 5.53 percent and 42 basis points higher. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.85 percent and were 0.30 basis points higher. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was three basis points lower at 4.36 percent; discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell to 243,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 245,000 initial claims filed.

Inflation readings for July showed the first decrease since April 2020 as the month-to-month reading decreased by 0.10 percent as compared to June’s month-to-month reading of a one-percent increase in inflation. The core personal consumption rate, which does not include food or fuel costs, rose by 0.10 percent as compared to the expected reading of 0.20 percent and June’s reading of 0.60 percent inflation.

Inflation rose by 6.30 percent year-over-year in July as compared to June’s year-over-year reading of 6.80 percent. Core inflation rose by 4.60 percent year-over-year in July as compared to June’s reading of 4.80 percent. Decreasing inflationary growth suggests that relief may be on the way for consumers.

What’s Next

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on home prices, construction spending,  public and private-sector job growth, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.