I had a conversation with my Dad this morning about how quickly time moves. I turned 40 in June of 2022 and although it wasn’t a major shock to the system what is shocking is how quickly I have approached 41. I have always kind of joked around about how fast time moves and that it seemingly moves quicker and quicker. It’s not much of a joke anymore though. It’s flying by and it causes me to take pause and think about what’s important and where focus should be.

I hate to be cliche but it’s all very short, the time we have here. Spend it with those you love, work to make the world a better place (or at least your community), fill your heart with the joy of being selfless and definitely don’t spend your time doing things that make you miserable. I’m in no way advocating for never doing things that make you uncomfortable or things that are difficult. I’m simply stating the rate race is over rated, scrolling social media is a waste of time… don’t let it pass you by and look up and find out that it’s February of 2024… already.

Today is that Day!

If you have been sitting on the fence waiting for the market to crash or because interest rates are high… today is the day. If you start paying attention to the economic factors that affect the interest rates and stop simply following mainstream media you’ll see that rates are coming back to us. I know I have been screaming this from the rooftops for a little while now but you need to take a real look at this picture:

  1. Inventory levels in the real estate market are already declining again
  2. The Fed is starting to show cracks in their strong stance on manipulating rates upwards
  3. Inflationary indicators are starting to slow in some areas and completely reverse in others
  4. Recessionary indicators aren’t on the rise, they are here… it’s simply a matter of time!

When you look at all of this combined it means that supply is low, rates will come back soon (we’re thinking possibly mid 5’s in the next couple months) which will increase demand… Low Supply + High Demand = Bidding Wars & Increased Prices. Would you rather pay a lot more at a low interest rate or pay a lot less and a temporary higher interest rate and still get that low interest rate a few months from now??

Oh and by the… way very soon the FHFA will be increasing rates for segments of the market. This is to help lower income buyers be able to better afford purchasing a home. In some ways though, this means higher purchase interest rates for the middle class (those with great credit but maybe not a lot of liquidity to put down large down-payments). This may be the last great time to buy for at least a couple years.

Don’t leave your decisions to only what you read in the news. Do your Homework!

If you haven’t heard of or read about an inverted yield spread now is the time to get familiar. An inverted yield spread is an economic indicator that can predict a coming recession. This is absolutely vital for you to understand and review if you are considering purchase a home using a mortgage. It will guide your decisions in structuring the loan for your new home.

A very simple explanation is when interest rates on long term bonds fall lower than short term bonds. So if you are comparing the 10 year bond to the 2 year bond and the 10 year yield is lower than the 2 year yield it can start to be an indicator. Typically a recession is a year behind this yield curve inverting and as of right now we are 10 months into the start of this happening. With this in mind and the 60 year history we can show, it is a near inevitability that we are either in or heading into a recession.

What does this mean to you? Once it is recognized that we are in a recession we will start to see inflationary indicators drop, the manipulation of the rates removed and bond markets will react in favor of lower interest rates. If you consider this and the fact that lower rates will increase demand, now is a great time to buy, get seller contributions and refinance when rates are lower. We can always change the rate you have but we cannot change the price you pay and the amount of fees you pay on the day you close on your new home.

There are a lot of creative ways to have the current economic factors help you achieve your financial goals!

A Story of how Short Sighted viewpoints can skew the world you see

I won’t go into full detail of how narrowing my vision of a certain situation caused a major headache as I do prefer to have some semblance of privacy. I will do my best to paint you a picture of how trying to see all angles and being open to other options can be time consuming but it can help you get to your goals without unnecessary strife and pain.

My wife and I are looking to make some major changes in our life to simplify things and get to doing the things we most enjoy. In this process we have made some decisions to really shake things up to start pushing towards those goals. Most of these decisions are based in finances and I had a very narrow vision of how this should work. I’m beyond thankful that my wife is patient and understanding as she let’s me kind of work through these things.

As I’m working to reconfigure our finances and push to accomplish some items we decided to take on I had an epiphany that showed how short sighted I was being. Once I allowed myself to look beyond my initial idea and be open to other ideas that maybe weren’t the first or even my idea at all… I found a way to save us almost a thousand dollars a month and replenish our savings almost overnight. This is a lesson in humility and patience. The first I have in spades but the second I have none. I want to go go go go! This can be great in some instances but in others it can narrow your vision so far that you don’t do the research and the thinking necessary to feel good and confident in what you’re doing.

Be self aware and humble enough to slow down a bit, ask for help and consider opposing views. It will save you time, it will save you money and it may even save your relationships. Keep pushing forward but don’t forget to re-evaluate!

What’s your financial THEORY?

The most common question I get asked no matter what the market is doing is “Should I buy right now?” The answer isn’t simple. Most of my responses to this are either questions or lawyer speak. What are you trying to accomplish. What are your short term and long term goals. How do your reserves look? Do you think we are headed into a recession? What is your threshold for risk? What is your financial theory?

The list can go on and on and on. Am I able to provide you with some insight to what the markets are doing and what are some possible short term outcomes with rates and financial industries? Absolutely. But as you’ve heard 100 times, I don’t have a crystal ball and the best I can do is give you some insight to what has historically happened in the past. The fact of the matter is it is going to come down to your financial theory. How do you manage your budget? Are you willing to make some sacrifices? Do you think that we are headed towards a recession and do you believe that recession will slow inflation which will in turn slow and/or reduce interest rates.

The simplest answer is do your homework, ask a ton of questions and don’t rely on one source for your information to make this kind of decision. You should be talking to financial people, you should be reading the news on all sides of the table. You should try to get your hands on historical data to show you trends of what happens in this economic scene. There isn’t a simple answer and rarely is there an answer that is perfectly clear. Go in with your eyes wide open, recognize the possible pitfalls and make sure you have a safety net. There’s always areas in the market for opportunity but you have to find them and do the work.

This is my favorite part of what I do, call me and let’s discuss!

Are there benefits to setting limits for Electronics in your house?

Recently my wife and I noticed a frustrating pattern of what can only be called addiction in our boys when it comes to electronics. This means video games, television, phone apps, internet and social media. We started to notice that the boys had a lower tolerance for attention span, shorter tempers and lacked a general ability to be creative especially when it came to boredom. The hardest part of this realization is that we realized it wasn’t just the boys. It was us too.

Enough was enough so we instituted a complete ban on most apps on their phones. This created a situation where if they wanted to search the web, play games or use youtube they had to ask. We also instituted a ban on TV and Electronics in the entire household until 7PM at night. It has been difficult to say the least to manage these guidelines in the home and at times it’s most difficult on myself. There are moments where you just want to relax and distract the mind with low brow entertainment.

This has been going on in our house for more than a month now and I have to say the results are nothing short of amazing. They aren’t all good all the time but it’s worth the effort. Our boys now have realized they have hobbies again, they have interests and they are pursuing them. We play board games, go on family walks and spend more time talking and cooking together. The hardest part came on Monday earlier this week. Our oldest went on a walk with me and explained that being at school has become difficult without the distraction of his phone because he’s the only one. I felt bad but in a lot of ways I felt justified and it only solidified my belief that where your mind goes shouldn’t be controlled or distracted so thoroughly by anyone or anything beyond your own interests. The most interesting part was he acknowledged that a lot of the kids at his school seemed like zombies because they were never not on their phones. He sees it too!!

I’m not saying that our new reality is perfect or even that it’s right for you. Life isn’t easy, it’s not meant to be easy and where you spend your attention and your time shouldn’t be zoned out. Go dream, unplug and start doing! Don’t watch other people live their lives as a way to live yours! Are there benefits, yes. I think there are a lifetime of benefits that we have yet to even realize.

No one gets where they want to go ALONE

As we continue to shift our focus away from automated content and shift back to the type of content that is interesting, helpful and hopefully captivating it can be difficult to know all “the things”, as my wife would say. The plan with the blog moving forward is going to touch on daily things, mental ramblings and many other things that are not mortgage and/or real estate. We want to still provide valid and updated information to help you with all things mortgage and real estate. These items will be sprinkled into this blog but to ensure we are hitting on the items that are important to you, we are asking you tell us what you want to get more information on. What are things you want to learn, myths you want us to verify or dispell, products, programs, credit… tell us what you want to know so we can start to work towards a more viable blog that better suits the needs of the people we serve.

I know, everyone and every company is vying for your eyeballs and attention. We aren’t different but we want to do it in a way that is organic and gives you some semblance of control in the information we provide. It can be difficult, at times, to make sound decisions on the information we put in the world because we are in this industry. Help us by giving us your outside perspective and push us forward as we continue to grow and learn how to best help you.

Please send any topics, questions or anything else you want to see us write about even if it’s not mortgage or real estate related and we will put it on the calendar to get that out to you and the world! Thanks Everyone!

How Much Risk is Too Much Risk?

It goes without saying that I don’t have the kind of popularity or market share to truly have a concern for cancellation of any sort of real scale. However, I can only imagine that I’m not alone in feeling like I have some things to say. I’m not looking to say them in a way for any reason other than feeling like a perspective based in consideration, curiosity and growth is no more dangerous than any other ideology.

I have for years wanted to write a book. The plan for the book is one of an extended term as it is going to take a long time to accomplish it with the type of truth and depth that I see for it. That idea has morphed and changed over time. No less than a year ago I wanted to finish the book and push it forward but have grown to realize that if it’s going to be what I need it to be I had to stop and allow it ferment and evolve through the life experiences that I’m pushing towards.

In the meantime with the new plan for the book I needed an outlet for these thoughts and feelings. I’m torn. I want this to be the place as it can serve multiple purposes. I can have an outlet to put thoughts into the world and it can, at minimum, provide a place to vent and release data in my brain to allow for new ones and evolutions of old ones. It can help me grow my business and help my family reach the goals we have for ourselves. I know to my core that my work is based on relationships and genuine relationships are not only easier but they are more fruitful. The problem exists though that there is anxiety over how I speak and how I think.

Is that going to cause issues for me in my work? If you’ve done business with me then you will disagree with that. Being myself has allowed for growth I could have never imagined. I want to write in the same way I speak and think. I’m not fearful of whether or not what I have to say is ethical or considerate or would actually be creating waves of negativity. However, our culture doesn’t exactly operate in this manner of common sense right now. Is the necessity of having a voice that is truly your own worth possibly risking a career and life that you’ve been working on… well, all your life? Hopefully that answer will come to light in working through this process.

It is about you… but it’s also about others.

I spend a lot of time thinking about perspective and how it affects everything in our lives. Perspective can be like thinking about the unimaginable size of the universe in that everyone has a different view of things. That different view comes from vantage point, the people in your life, the influences you have like media choices and the list goes on and on and on. With this in mind the overwhelming thought that I have is trying to comprehend the amount of compassion and understanding that comes from trying to remember how much perspective can matter.

When I say this though I’m not speaking to your perspective, or better yet mine. In some ways it can mean that but I more mean understanding that others perspective needs to be a consideration of yours/mine as we try to comprehend the direction others are coming from. The compassion and understanding that comes from clarifying and diving deeper for a more thorough comprehension can allow you to be considerate of others perspective.

The point of this isn’t to change your perspective. The point is to be able to reign in your emotions when speaking to others about their perspective. Don’t be afraid to learn and have compassion for the angle at which others view the world. It’s not about changing, it’s about understanding and finding a comfortable place for yourself by having compassion and patience for others.

All of this plays out daily for me in my profession as I cannot push or enforce my financial theory on others. I have to take the time to understand where you’re coming from and why you’re coming from that angle. Nearly always the angle is formulated from goals and past experience combined. It’s vital that I learn these things and not judge others place in the world but to find a program and path through mortgage that can fit the perspective of the client based on their “stuff” and not mine.

How do you view the world?

I have been listening to a lot of Joe Rogan’s podcast lately. There are a lot of reasons for this but the primary reason right now is I’m going through audio books so fast on audible that I needed something to listen to while I drive to the office or go on my walks. I had heard a lot of things about Joe and have even met him in person. There was negativity and vitriol spewed in his direction without a lot of thought or care given to many things. Now, I’m not saying the man is perfect or that I agree with everything or even most of what he says or insinuates. However, I think if you you spend enough time listening to his approach, give careful consideration to his tact and you’ll see a man simply searching for knowledge and understanding.

We live in a massively polarizing world right now. You are either with me or your against me is the attitude and it’s a frightening and over-simplified view on human interaction. There are so few people that are clear cut one thing or have clear cut left or right stances. Most of us lean right on this and left on that. The interesting reason, at least in my mind, has to do with your experiences. You aren’t and shouldn’t be just what you read and hear. You are a human and have evolved to become the person you are today from the experiences you have had. For some reason we have turned into this other thing where you are either on the side of completely being without empathy or you feel so disconnected you don’t care. Yes, there are other sides and I’m absolutely oversimplifying but the fact I have to say that is proof that you have to now be precise because conversation to get understanding is a dying skill.

What is most often missed is the empathy required up front of a conversation about hard things or even anything. Understand that peoples beliefs and understandings come from the experiences they have had in their life. No one has ever experienced the things you have, not in the way you have and in the sequence that you have. So if we all look at the world through a different lense, where did the empathy go? How did we lose the ability to have a conversation with respect and positive curiosity? Again, all very general ideas that are my own and thoughts I’ve been having since I was a teenager but my idea is that intention no longer matters and it has to. We understand that intention matters in some criminal formats like murder. Was your intention to plan and plot this or did it happen in a moment of passion and anger. There are levels for that. We understand intention but it has continually lost merit.

If I had any advice it would be to stop trying to win arguments and start trying to better understand the other side. Don’t ask yourself if they are right or wrong or whether or not you agree. Ask yourself what the intention is and I think you’ll find a more clearly defined path to have a meaningful and insightful conversation and maybe even view of the world.