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Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in NovemberS&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices reported slower home price growth in November. Rising mortgage rates and high home prices sidelined first-time and moderate-income buyers and investors who fear buying at the peak of today’s housing markets only to face lower home values when home prices cool off.

November’s National Home Price Index reported a year-over-year gain of 18.80 percent in home prices year-over-year. The 20-City Home Price Index, which, real estate pros frequently use to estimate home pricing trends, reported that U.S. home prices rose 18.30 percent year-over-year in November.

20-City Home Price Index: Arizona and Florida Post Top Gains in Home Prices

Home prices in the Phoenix, Arizona metro area rose by 32.2 percent year-over-year in November. Tampa, Florida followed with year-over-year home price growth of 29.0 percent. Miami, Florida held third place in the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index with year-over-year home price growth of 26.6 percent.

The covid pandemic influenced home buying trends in multiple ways. Closures of workspaces, loss of childcare options and local restrictions and regulations designed to prevent the spread of covid caused many people to seek alternatives to commuting to work. Working from home allowed homeowners to transition from daily commutes to work to buying bigger homes to accommodate changing family and work needs.

Covid influenced many home buyers to look for homes in less-congested metro areas; Metro areas in the mountain west have grown as buyers from congested coastal metro areas bought homes in less populated areas in states including Arizona, Colorado, and Idaho.

Rising Home Prices and Mortgage Rates Impact Affordability

Rapidly rising home prices, buyer competition, and higher mortgage rates continued to challenge first-time and moderate-income home buyers, but demand for homes remains high. Analysts expect high demand and short supplies of available homes will continue to dominate housing markets in 2022.

The Naples, Florida metro area held first place in a survey of emerging housing markets; the North-Port, Sarasota, and Bradenton, Florida metro areas held second place in emerging markets. International buyers and vacation rentals are driving home sales as covid-related travel restrictions are lifted.

Metro areas including Raleigh, North Carolina, and Fort Wayne, Indiana held their own among popular vacation destinations. Foreign-born home buyers are returning to U.S. housing markets from covid-related travel restrictions. Danielle Hale, the chief economist at Realtor.com, said: “The idea that people are traveling more and that borders are a little bit more open than they were gives  international buyers the confidence to get [into the housing market.] We do see an increase in international shopping within a lot of these areas.”

Emerging real estate markets and recovery of formerly stable housing markets indicate that the worst effects of the pandemic are easing but the quick spread of covid’s omicron variant suggests that complete economic recovery from the pandemic is a gradual process. 

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - December 12, 2021Last week’s economic reporting included readings on job openings and quits, month-to-month and year-over-year readings on inflation,  and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment survey for December. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released

Job Openings Increase as Quits Decrease as Inflation Remains High

The U.S. Labor Department reported that workers quit their jobs at record levels in October as job openings rose to 11 million openings as compared to expectations of 10.6 million job vacancies, which matched September’s reading for job openings. Fewer people quit jobs in October as 4.2 million workers left their jobs as compared to 4.4 million quits reported in September. The Labor Department said that many quits were driven by workers leaving for better jobs and career opportunities.

Analysts said that if job quits continue at their current pace through the end of 2021, new records for job quits will be established.

The Consumer Price Index, which measures U.S. inflation, rose by 0.80 percent from October to November. Analysts expected a monthly increase of 0.70 percent based on October’s month-to-month reading of 0.90 percent. The year-over-year inflation rate rose to 6.80 percent in November and surpassed October’s reading of 6.20 percent and the expected reading of 6.70 percent.

Mortgage Rates Lower, Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported slightly lower mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by one basis point to 3.01 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.38 percent and one basis point lower than for the previous week. Mortgage rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged four basis points lower at  2.45 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell to 184,000 first-time claims filed as compared to 227,000 claims filed during the previous week. Analysts expected 211,000 initial jobless claims to be filed last week. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.99 million ongoing claims filed.  Analysts expected 1.95 million continuing claims filings based on the prior week’s reading of 1.96 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

The University of Michigan reported rising consumer confidence in economic conditions for December with an index reading of 70.4. Analysts expected a reading of 68.0 based n November’s index reading of 67.4. Index readings above 50 indicate that most consumers are confident about current economic conditions.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing markets, The post-meeting statement from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee will be released and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference. The Commerce Department will release readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - December 6, 2021Last week’s economic reports included readings on home price trends, pending home sales, labor-sector readings on public and private-sector job growth. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

S&P Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in September

The pace of national home price growth slowed for the first time since May 2020 in September according to S&P Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index. Year-over-year home price growth slowed by 0.30 percent to 19.50 percent from August’s year-over-year home price growth reading of 19.80 percent. Demand for homes typically slows during fall and winter; some buyers were also sidelined by affordability concerns.

The 20-City Home Price Index for September showed some changes as Phoenix, Arizona continued to hold its top spot in the index and reported a 33.10 percent gain in home prices year-over-year. Tampa, Florida held second place with a  year-over-year home price growth rate of 27.70 percent. Miami, Florida reported a year-over-year home price growth rate of 25.20 percent. Western states have recently dominated home price growth rates, but Florida cities have surpassed former second and third-place cities San Diego, California, and Seattle, Washington.

Pending home sales of previously owned homes rose by 7.50 percent in October as compared to the expected pace of 0.70 percent and September’s reading of  2.40 percent fewer sales of homes for which purchase contracts were signed but sales were not yet completed. The surge in pending home sales was attributed to homebuyers’ haste to avoid expected higher mortgage rates and rapidly rising rents. The National Association of Realtors® noted that sales activity was higher than usual for fall, but also cautioned that the emergence of a new variation of the covid-19 virus could slow sales activity.

Mortgage Rates Little Changed as New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported minimal activity for mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by one basis point to 3.11 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.39 percent and were three basis points lower. Interest rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose by two basis points to 2.40 percent on average. Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims rose to 222,000 claims filed and fell short of the expected reading of 240,000 new claims filed. 194,000 initial jobless claims were filed during the prior week. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.96 million ongoing claims from the prior week’s reading of 2.06 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on job openings and quits and the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - October 18, 2021

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation, core inflation, and minutes of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on September 22 and 23. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

September’s Consumer Price Index rose by 0.10 percent to 0.40 percent. The Core Consumer Price Index for September, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, rose by 0.10 percent to 0.20 percent and fell short of the expected reading of 0.30 percent growth.

Feds’ FOMC Meeting Minutes: Policymakers Consider Tapering Securities Purchases

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held September 21 and 22 indicated that policymakers discussed when to taper the Fed’s purchase of U.S. Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed Securities. Opinions were mixed as some policymakers recommended faster tapering of asset purchases and others were concerned about the potentially negative impact on financial markets if the Fed reduced its asset purchases too quickly. No specific dates for tapering asset purchases were set during the current FOMC meeting, but analysts expected the Committee to announce its plan for tapering asset purchases at its next meeting.

FOMC members also discussed inflation and were divided on their forecasts for inflation. While some members expected high inflationary growth in 2022, other FOMC members said that Covid-related bottlenecks in supply chains caused higher inflation in the near term.

Mortgage Rates Rise as Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by six basis points to 3.05 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by seven basis points to 2.30 percent; rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose averaged 2.55 percent and were three basis points higher Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.20 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell to 293,000 new claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 329,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims also fell with 2.59 million ongoing claims filed; 2.73 million ongoing claims were filed in the previous week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing market conditions. Reporting on sales of previously-owned homes, housing starts, and building permits issued are expected; weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Case-Shiller: June Home Prices HigherS&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices reported new record gains for home prices in June. The National Home Price Index rose by a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 18.60 percent as compared to May’s home price increase rate of 16.80 percent. Home prices were 41 percent higher than they were during the 2006 housing boom; home price growth was driven by high demand for homes coupled with short supplies of homes for sale.  

20-City Home Price Index Posts Month-to-Month Home Price Gain of 2 Percent

The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index posted a two percent gain in June as compared to May. Home prices rose by 19.10 percent on a seasonally adjusted annual basis in June;  all 20 cities included in the index reported higher home prices. Phoenix, Arizona held first place for home price growth in June with a year-over-year price gain of 29.30 percent. San Diego, California held second place in the 20-City Home Price Index with a year-over-year price gain of 27.10 percent and Seattle Washington followed with year-over-year home price growth of 25.00 percent.

All 20 cities posted higher home price gains in June than in May. Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said: “In June all 20 cities gained more in the 12 months ended in June than they did in the 12 months ended in May.”

Analysts Say Current Home Price Growth is Unsustainable

Rapidly rising home prices sidelined would-be homebuyers who expressed concerns over the fast pace of home sales, and limited choices of available homes. Cash buyers and bidding wars continued to challenge mortgage-dependent homebuyers, but low mortgage rates continued to draw homebuyers into the market.

Covid fueled an exodus from congested urban areas to less populated areas inland. Families who modified their lifestyles to include working from home and homeschooling their children needed larger homes. As workers switched from commuting to work to telecommuting, they were no longer constrained by physical proximity to their employers, but now that businesses and workplaces are reopening, it’s unknown how or if pre-covid housing and work trends will be re-established or if covid era home-based work and schooling options will expand.

In related news, the Federal Housing Finance Agency released data on sales of single-family homes owned or mortgaged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Home prices rose 17.4 percent from the second quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2021.FHFA reported that home prices rose 4.90 percent from the first quarter of 2021 through the second quarter of 2021, and were 1.60 percent higher for June 2021 than in May.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - August 2, 2021Last week’s economic reporting included readings on home prices, new and pending home sales, and the post-meeting statement of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Price Growth Breaks Records for Second Consecutive Month

National home prices grew by 16.60 percent year-over-year in May according to S&P Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index. April’s reading reported year-over-year home price growth of 14.80 percent. Home price growth broke records for the second month in a row in May. S&P Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index reported top home price growth in Phoenix, Arizona, Seattle, Washington, and San Diego, California again held the top three positions for US home price growth.

Home price growth exceeded expectations in the months since the covid pandemic arose as homeowners and homebuyers sought to relocate to less populated areas. Demand for homes continued to exceed inventories of homes for sale; this trend has driven home prices beyond the reach of many first-time and moderate-income buyers.  While affordability issues won’t be solved overnight, some slowing in home prices growth suggested that the national housing boom was easing as demand for homes slowed. Affordability became an obstacle for homebuyers who could not compete with rapidly escalating home prices, high demand for homes, and buyers prepared to make cash offers.

New and Pending Home Sales Fall

Rapidly rising home prices and few choices among available homes caused new home sales and pending home sales to fall in June. Homebuyers were frustrated with low inventories of homes and high home prices. Pending home sales fell by 1.90 percent in June; analysts expected an increase of 0.50 percent for pending home sales. Pending home sales in May rose by 8.30 percent.

June sales of new homes fell to a year-over-year pace of  676,000 sales as compared to May’s reading of 724,000 sales of new homes. Analysts expected a year-over-year sales pace of 795,000 new homes sold.  This was the lowest pace for sales of new homes since the onset of the pandemic.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported mixed changes in average mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by two basis points to 2.80 percent, but the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by two basis points to 2.10 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell by four basis points to 2.45 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims fell to 400,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 424,000 claims filed. Continuing jobless claims rose to 3.27 million ongoing claims filed last week as compared to 3.26 million ongoing jobless claims filed in the previous week.

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced that it did not raise the Federal Reserve’s key target interest rate range of 0.00 to 0.25 percent.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for July was released with an index reading of 81.2; a reading of 80.5 was expected based on June’s index reading of 80.8.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on construction spending and labor sector readings on jobs growth and national unemployment. Weekly reporting on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

S&P Case-Schiller Indices Report Record Rise in Home PricesHome prices continued to rise at record rates in May according to S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. National home prices rose by 16.60 percent year-over-year in May as compared to 14.80 percent year-over-year price growth in April. The 10-City Home Price Index reported home prices rose 16.40 percent year-over-year and 1.90 percent month-to-month.

20-City Home Price Index Reports 17 Percent Home Price Growth Year-Over-Year

S&P Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index reported month-to-month home price growth of two percent in May as year-over-year home price gains rose from April’s reading of 15 percent to 17 percent year-over-year home price growth.

All cities participating in the 20-City Home Price Index reported home price gains in May. Three cities held their positions with top rates of home price growth. Phoenix Arizona held first place with year-over-year home price growth of 25.90 percent; San Diego, California reported 24.70 percent home price growth. Seattle Washington held third place with 23.40 percent year-over-year home price growth in May.

Home Price Growth Expected to Slow as Buyers Drop Out of Market

Craig Lazarra, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P down Jones Indices said he found himself “running out of superlatives to describe the record increases in home prices.” Analysts credited homebuyer relocation from urban areas to less populated suburban and rural areas for driving up prices. The pandemic initially drove this trend and continues to do so today. Other factors pushing home prices higher included high demand for homes exceeding homes available. As millennials reach their prime-home buying years, demand for homes will increase. Low mortgage rates also encouraged would-be home buyers into the housing market.

High demand for homes drives home prices up, but slower sales suggest that buyers are reaching a tipping point with affordability. Fewer buyers will raise the inventory of available homes and cause home prices to fall. First-time and moderate-income buyers continue to face affordability constraints in many areas, but home prices likely won’t fall significantly in the near term.

In related news, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported similar readings for single-family homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Home prices rose 1.70 percent from April to May and 18.00 percent year-over-year in May. Readings from FHFA include seasonally-adjusted purchase-only data;  refinance transactions were not included.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - July 12, 2021Last week’s scheduled economic reporting included readings from the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee, news on changing FHA home loan requirements for borrowers with student loans, and reporting on job openings. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

FOMC Minutes Show Fed’s Reluctance to Raise Target Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve released minutes of its meeting held via teleconferencing on June 15 and 16. The Committee resumed its consideration of creating “domestic and foreign repurchase agencies that would have a backdrop role in fostering implementation and support of monetary policy and smooth functioning of markets,” but no decisions were made.

 FOMC members did not change the current federal funds rate range of  0.00 to 0.25 percent and did not anticipate changing the Fed’s key interest rate range until the end of 2023. Lower jobs growth and higher inflation than expected in the near term influenced the current decision to hold on raising the Fed’s key rate, but the Committee predicted that near-term inflation will subside in the medium term.

FHA Changes Home Loan Policy on Borrowers with Student Loans

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) announced changes to its home loan lending requirements for borrowers with student loans; the changes become effective by August 16 or sooner if lenders prefer. The changes in calculations used for determining debt-to-income ratios for borrowers with student loans will help more borrowers fall within the maximum debt-to-income ratio of 43 percent currently permitted by FHA regulations.

Mortgage Rates Fall; Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported record low mortgage rates last week as demand for homes continued to outstrip supplies of available homes. Steep increases in home prices continued to create affordability issues for first-time and moderate-income homebuyers.

The average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by eight basis points to 2.90 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.20 percent and were six basis points lower. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.52 percent and were two basis points lower. Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for 30-year fixed-rate loans and 0.70 percent for 15-year fixed-rate loans. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.20 percent.

Initial jobless claims rose to 373,000 first-time claims filed as compared to 371,000 initial claims filed in the previous week. Continuing jobless claims fell to 3.34 million ongoing claims filed from the previous week’s reading of 3.48 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

Job openings held steady at 9.20 million job openings; employers continued searching for workers for open positions.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment.  Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

 

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - July 5, 2021Last week’s economic reports included readings from S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and data on pending home sales. Readings on job growth and und unemployment were also released along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

S&P Case-Shiller: April Home Price Gains Reach Record Highs

Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of investment strategy for S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that April’s year-over-year national home price growth rate of 14.60 percent was “ truly extraordinary.” All cities included in the 20-City Home Price Index posted higher home prices;  five cities including Charlotte, North Carolina, Cleveland, Ohio, and Dallas, Texas posted their highest home price gains ever along with Denver, Colorado, and Seattle, Washington.  

Phoenix, Arizona, San Diego, California, and Seattle, Washington continued to hold the top three positions for annual home price growth in the 20-City Home Price Index.

Realtors Report Increase in Pending Home Sales

Pending home sales rose by eight percent in May as compared to April. Analysts expected a one percent decrease in pending sales. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors®, said “May’s strong increase in transactions, as well as a sudden erosion in home affordability, was indeed a surprise. The housing market is attracting buyers b due to the decline in mortgage rates and an uptick in listings.”

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Show Mixed Results

Freddie Mac reported lower average rates for fixed-rate mortgages. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by four basis points to 2.98 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by eight basis points to 2.26 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose by one basis point to 2.54 percent. Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.70 percent for 15-yar fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged0.30 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell to 364,000 initial claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 415,000 new claims filed. Continuing jobless claims increased with 3.47 million ongoing claims filed. ADP reported 692,000 private-sector jobs added in June; The federal Non-Farm payrolls report posted 850,000 public and private-sector jobs added as compared to 583,000 jobs added in May. The national unemployment rate ticked up to 5.90 percent in June from May’s reading of 5.80 percent unemployed.  

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include the minutes from the most recent meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee and the Labor Department’s report on job openings. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - July 5, 2021Last week’s economic reports included readings from S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and data on pending home sales. Readings on job growth and und unemployment were also released along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

S&P Case-Shiller: April Home Price Gains Reach Record Highs

Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of investment strategy for S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that April’s year-over-year national home price growth rate of 14.60 percent was “ truly extraordinary.” All cities included in the 20-City Home Price Index posted higher home prices;  five cities including Charlotte, North Carolina, Cleveland, Ohio, and Dallas, Texas posted their highest home price gains ever along with Denver, Colorado, and Seattle, Washington.  

Phoenix, Arizona, San Diego, California, and Seattle, Washington continued to hold the top three positions for annual home price growth in the 20-City Home Price Index.

Realtors Report Increase in Pending Home Sales

Pending home sales rose by eight percent in May as compared to April. Analysts expected a one percent decrease in pending sales. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors®, said “May’s strong increase in transactions, as well as a sudden erosion in home affordability, was indeed a surprise. The housing market is attracting buyers b due to the decline in mortgage rates and an uptick in listings.”

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Show Mixed Results

Freddie Mac reported lower average rates for fixed-rate mortgages. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by four basis points to 2.98 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by eight basis points to 2.26 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose by one basis point to 2.54 percent. Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.70 percent for 15-yar fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged0.30 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell to 364,000 initial claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 415,000 new claims filed. Continuing jobless claims increased with 3.47 million ongoing claims filed. ADP reported 692,000 private-sector jobs added in June; The federal Non-Farm payrolls report posted 850,000 public and private-sector jobs added as compared to 583,000 jobs added in May. The national unemployment rate ticked up to 5.90 percent in June from May’s reading of 5.80 percent unemployed.  

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include the minutes from the most recent meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee and the Labor Department’s report on job openings. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.